By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter
THE PHILIPPINES should temper its expectations from negotiations with China on their sea dispute because Beijing is more interested in advancing its interests in the South China Sea, according to a United States security analyst.
“China’s first priority is not de-escalation but rather advancing its position,” Raymond M. Powell, a fellow at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said in an X message on Wednesday.
The neighbors resumed talks this week to ease tensions in the South China Sea, days after a standoff at Second Thomas Shoal, where a handful of Filipino soldiers live on a dilapidated outpost.
Manila grounded the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship, there in 1999 to bolster its sea claim.
Manila is hosting the latest round of talks between the two countries under their bilateral consultation mechanism, a format to specifically address South China Sea disputes.
But Mr. Powell noted that the ninth meeting under the mechanism on Tuesday was accompanied by the deployment of a China Coast Guard ship off the coast of Palawan province and another coast guard ship known as the “The Monster” to Second Thomas Shoal.
“This is to ensure that Beijing comes into any negotiations from a position of relative strength in order to extract more concessions,” he said.
China’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday night urged the Philippines to stop its “maritime infringement” and provocation in the South China Sea, hours after the bilateral talks.
In a statement posted on its website, the ministry said the Philippines should “return to the right track of properly handling disputes” by pursuing dialogue and consultation to avoid worsening tensions.
Philippine Foreign Affairs spokesperson Ma. Teresita C. Daza did not immediately reply to a WhatsApp message seeking comment.
“The two sides believe that maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea serves the interests of both China and the Philippines and is also the common goal of countries in the region,” China’s Foreign Ministry said.
It added that both sides had committed to improve maritime communication and to explore cooperation in marine science and technology.
The bilateral meeting was held weeks after a June 17 standoff at Second Thomas Shoal in which Chinese forces with bladed weapons boarded Philippine rubber boats on a resupply mission and looted rifles.
Philippine Navy personnel fought with bare hands and one of them lost a thumb after the rubber he was in was rammed, according to the Philippine military.
The shoal is located 240 kilometers off the coast of Palawan province and is about 900 kilometers from Hainan, the nearest major Chinese landmass.
Mr. Powell, in a report that cited satellite imagery, said the 165-meter CCG 5901, the world’s largest coast guard ship, had “returned for another intrusive patrol in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ),” joining the 102-meter CCG 5203 at Second Thomas Shoal at 7:26 am.
Efforts to schedule a bilateral meeting between the neighbors to manage tensions at sea started as early as May, according to the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA). There were working group meetings between the two sides weeks before the July 2 meeting.
Mr. Powell said the Philippines “should continue to look after its interests” as the two nations explore talks.
“What China says is far less important than what China does.”
He said China wants the Philippines to “de-escalate,” while China consolidates its gains, just as it did at Scarborough Shoal in 2012.
China seized the shoal, which is within the Philippine EEZ, in 2012 after maintaining constant coast guard presence there, according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.
Michael Henry Ll. Yusingco, a fellow at the Ateneo de Manila University Policy Center, said the resumption of bilateral consultations between Manila and Beijing is a good development “but we should also take it for what it is.”
“It’s just a resumption of talks,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “A diplomatic settlement is still far from attainable. We must still make sure that the government does not concede an inch of our territory.”
“That means we must still demand the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines,” he added.
Mr. Yusingco said the government should ensure that the talks endure at least at the ministerial levels.
“It would be strategic to just designate one official spokesperson to speak about West Philippine Sea matters,” he said. “They should set a stern directive for officials in the Marcos administration to desist from making any commentary regarding these matters.”
“As far as the Marcos administration is concerned, strategic transparency should be implemented properly, meaning, reporting just facts and nothing else.”
After the bilateral talks on Tuesday, the DFA said the parties “had frank and constructive discussions on the South China Sea situation.”
Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro told her counterpart that the Philippines “will be relentless in protecting its interests and upholding its sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction in the West Philippine Sea,” the agency said.
“Noting recent incidents in the South China Sea, both sides recognized that there is a need to restore trust, rebuild confidence and create conditions conducive to productive dialogue and interaction,” it added.
NO THREAT OF ATTACKMr. Yusingco said Philippine officials should continue to prioritize boosting Manila’s maritime defense capabilities.
“This is really the best way to ensure that no other country can disrespect our sovereignty and the integrity of our national territory.”
He earlier noted that every major South China Sea claimant has a robust and respectable naval force “except the Philippines.”
Also on Wednesday, National Security Council (NSC) Assistant Director-General Jonathan E. Malaya said the government “sees no threat of any imminent attack” from China, after video remarks from Senator Maria Imelda “Imee” R. Marcos that China was planning to use hypersonic missiles against military bases under the Philippines’ Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States.
“We will reach out to Senator Imee to get more information about her statement because we are not aware of any of the security threats she mentioned,” he told reporters in a group message.
He said the two countries “reaffirmed their commitment to de-escalating tensions” at their bilateral talks on Tuesday.
“There was also substantial progress on developing measures to manage the situation in the West Philippine Sea, including improving maritime communications,” he added.
“The Philippines and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) maintain cordial relations and are committed to managing whatever differences there may be,” Mr. Malaya said. “We see no threat of any imminent attack from the PRC.” — with John Victor D. Ordoñez
