It’s the most wonderful time of the year. For Canadian tennis fans, that is.
Canada’s two largest cities are set to host (most of) the world’s best tennis players. And this year’s National Bank Open presented by Rogers has big shoes to fill.
Victoria Mboko glued the nation’s eyes to its TV sets last summer when she defeated Naomi Osaka in Montreal to win the tournament, becoming the first Canadian singles champion since Bianca Andreescu in 2019. It was a monumental moment for the country and for the sport.
Mboko’s absence looms large over this year’s edition. The 19-year-old injured her MCL at last month’s HSBC Championships in England, knocking her out of the NBO and likely next month’s US Open.
But not all is lost. Canada has other hopefuls to lift a singles trophy this year, including the No. 2 seed on the men’s side, Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Can Felix overcome NBO demons?
Auger-Aliassime is undoubtedly Canada’s best hope for a homegrown champion at this tournament. The world No. 4 is the two-seed on the men’s side, and is playing in his home province in front of adoring fans. The pride of Quebec has a relatively favourable path to the final.
Yet home soil does not necessarily mean stable ground for Auger-Aliassime. The 25-year-old has not advanced past the second round at the National Bank Open since 2022, when he reached the quarterfinals. Auger-Aliassime’s 42 per cent career win/loss record at the NBO is tied for his lowest win percentage among all Masters 1000 tournaments.
At Auger-Aliassime’s most recent Montreal appearance two years ago, he was dispatched in the first round in straight sets by Flavio Cobboli. He and Cobboli are projected to meet in this tournament’s quarterfinals, and Auger-Aliassime is winless in their three head-to-head matches.
This is a critical junction of Auger-Aliassime’s career. He fired longtime coach Frederic Fontang after his quarterfinal loss at Wimbledon earlier this month, Auger-Aliassime’s second straight Grand Slam quarterfinal defeat.
Auger-Aliassime has shown flashes of excellence, and the ability to make runs at major tournaments, appearing in the Paris Masters final in November. If his coaching staff was holding him back from being a perennial championship threat, this hometown tournament is the place to prove he is a truly elite player.
Other Canadian hopeful Denis Shapovalov, who has similarly struggled in Canada, is set to take on American Zachary Svajda in the first round. Shapovalov is coming off a finals run at the ATP 250 Los Cabos Open.
Sabalenka looks to find form
Aryna Sabalenka has been the most dominant player in the WTA over the last few years, but she’s in the midst of a rough stretch. The world No. 1 unexpectedly fell in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon to Osaka, just a month after her quarterfinal loss at the French Open.
For Sabalenka, the blue and green court at Sobey’s Stadium should be a beacon of comfort.
The 28-year-old from Belarus is a hardcourt wizard, and her success on the surface compared to grass and clay is staggering.
Since withdrawing from last year’s National Bank Open, she has only lost to two players on hard courts (Jessica Pegula, and Elena Rybakina thrice). In that time, she has won four championships, including last year’s US Open, and was a finalist in Australia.
Some players are simply suited for certain surfaces, and the four-time Grand Slam champion Sabalenka is no exception. Naturally all of her Slam titles came on hard courts — two in Melbourne and two in New York.
If Sabalenka flames out early in Toronto, it would indicate a decline in her play. What’s more likely is that she is on a collision course to play her nemesis and No. 2 seed Rybakina in the final.
The new 12-day format for the National Bank Open has been fodder for debate since its inception last Summer. It had been a weeklong tournament for years, and suddenly player attendance is changing.
World No. 1 and 2023 tournament champion Jannik Sinner withdrew from the tournament last week, as did tennis icon Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic’s withdrawal is unsurprising. The four-time tournament champion has not made an appearance in Canada since 2018. At 39, Djokovic is the sport’s all-time career earnings leader, and he has become increasingly selective about which tournaments he attends.
Sinner on the other hand is 24, and is coming off a second straight championship at Wimbledon. It is also his second straight year skipping Canada.
Meanwhile, world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz’s lingering injury is keeping him out of Canada, where he hasn’t played since 2023.
These absences bode well for Auger-Aliassime’s chances, but Quebec tennis fans are missing out on some of the most popular athletes in the sport.
The NBO has always found itself in an awkward portion of the tennis calendar, squished between the Wimbledon and US Open championships, and directly preceding the Cincinnati Masters, which has the exact same total prize purse.
Struggling Fernandez leading pack
Montreal’s Leylah Fernandez is the highest ranked Canadian in the Toronto cohort, coming in as the 30-seed. She is also one of the biggest fallers in the most recent WTA rankings, dropping nine spots to No. 34 in the world.
It has been tough sledding for Fernandez this season. At the DC Open earlier this week — where she was the defending champion — Ferandez collapsed in the second round, conceding five consecutive games then the tiebreak to end the match, losing in straight sets.
Fernandez has particularly struggled at the Grand Slams this year, falling in the first round at each of the Australian Open, Roland Garros, and Wimbledon championships.
For the 23-year-old who was a US Open finalist in 2021, and won two singles titles last year, the only way to describe Fernandez’s 2026 season is disappointing.
As if the outlook was not bleak enough, Fernadez has struggled in Canada, much like Auger-Aliassime, never making it past the third round in six National Bank Open appearances.
Several Canadian women will take to the court as wildcards — including Andreescu, who will play Czechia’s Nikola Bartunkova on Sunday — but Fernandez is the highest billed on the set list. In a stacked women’s field with only one top-10 player absent, it will not be easy for Fernandez to turn her frustrating season around.
Mboko won’t be present to defend her title, but American flamethrower Ben Shelton is set to defend his.
Shelton’s win in Toronto over Karen Khachanov was his first Masters 1000 title, and had the feeling of a coming-out party. At just 23-years-old, with one of the best serves on tour, Shelton seems like a candidate to end the Grand Slam-less streak among American men, which dates back to Andy Roddick in 2003.
Since last year’s final, Shelton has made inroads at big tournaments, including quarterfinal appearances in Cincinnati, at the Paris Masters, and the Australian Open.
Shelton is another player who thrives on hard courts and is also especially vocal, always looking to get the crowd on his side. As the defending champion, the southpaw will try to use the Canadian crowd to his advantage, who should be favourable to him so long as he does not match up with a Canadian.
Lingering World Cup fever
FIFA World Cup festivities wrapped up in Toronto just a couple of weeks ago, but national pride is still in the air.
Budding star Alex Eala has been well supported throughout the season by Filipino fans all over the world. The 21-year-old’s ascent to the WTA’s top-30 players has been swift, and her fan base has been growing. The Greater Toronto Area is home to the largest Filipino population in Canada, so Eala should have substantial support throughout her tournament.
Polish star Iga Swiatek is also always a fan favourite in Toronto, which is home to a large number of Polish-Canadians. The six-time Grand Slam champion is on the hunt for her first NBO title.
More, Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk are the ninth- and 10th-seeds, respectively, and should have loud and proud support in Toronto.
And in Montreal, expect Brazilian phenom Joao Fonseca to have a dedicated fan section. While the Brazilian population in the city is relatively small, Fonseca’s third-round win over Djokovic at Roland Garros increased his profile domestically. Brazilian fans travel far and wide to support the 19-year-old.
